Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits
Carleton, Tamma and Delgado, Michael and Greenstone, Michael and Houser, Trevor and Hsiang, Solomon and Hultgren, Andrew and Jina, Amir and Kopp, Robert E. and McCusker, Kelly and Nath, Ishan and Rising, James and Rode, Ashwin and Seo, Hee Kwon and Simcock, Justin and Viaene, Arvid and Yuan, Jiacan and Zhang, Alice Tianbo, Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits (August 1, 2018). University of Chicago, Becker Friedman Institute for Economics Working Paper No. 2018-51. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3224365
Using subnational data from 41 countries, we develop an empirical model of the mortality-temperature relationship that allows us to estimate effects where no mortality data exist and to account for the benefits of adaptation to climate. Importantly, we develop a revealed preference approach that bounds adaptation costs, even though they cannot be directly observed. Using future climate simulations, we compute a median willingness-to-pay of $20 (moderate emissions scenario) to $39 (high emissions scenario) to avoid excess mortality risk from warming (2015 USD, 3% discount rate). Allocating these costs to 24,378 political units, we find substantial heterogeneity.