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Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries

Rasmussen, D. J., Bitterman, K., Buchanan, M. K., Kulp, S., Strauss, B. H., Kopp, R. E., Oppenheimer, M. (2018). Extreme sea level implications of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 2.5 °C temperature stabilization targets in the 21st and 22nd centuries, Environmental Research Letters, 13, 0640095.

A 1.5 C temperature increase could drive the global mean sea level up by roughly 1.6 feet (48 cm) while a 2.0 C increase will raise oceans by about 1.8 feet (56 cm) and a 2.5 C increase will raise sea level by an estimated 1.9 feet (58 cm).
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Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections

Kopp, R. E., DeConto, R. M., Bader, D. A., Hay, C.C., Horton, R. M., Kulp, S., Oppenheimer, M., Pollard, D., & Strauss, B.H. (2017). Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections, Earth’s Future, 5. http://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000663

This study links a framework for global and local sea-level rise projections with simulations of two major mechanisms by which climate change can affect the vast Antarctic ice sheet. It shows that future sea level rise may be more than previously thought, but just how much won’t become evident until after mid-century.
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Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I

USGCRP, 2017: Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA, 470 pp, doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6.

Lab co-director Robert Kopp helped write the “Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I,” released by the United States Global Change Research Program. This comprehensive report provides the most up-to-date climate science assessment in the world. It was compiled by 51 authors, the majority of whom were drawn from federal agencies.
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